Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing the variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then, the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Additionally, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation.
In machine learning, if the training data is independently and identically distributed as the test data then a trained model can make an accurate predictions for new samples of data. Conventional machine learning has a strong dependence on massive amounts of training data which are domain specific to understand their latent patterns. In contrast, Domain adaptation and Transfer learning methods are sub-fields within machine learning that are concerned with solving the inescapable problem of insufficient training data by relaxing the domain dependence hypothesis. In this contribution, this issue has been addressed and by making a novel combination of both the methods we develop a computationally efficient and practical algorithm to solve boundary value problems based on nonlinear partial differential equations. We adopt a meshfree analysis framework to integrate the prevailing geometric modelling techniques based on NURBS and present an enhanced deep collocation approach that also plays an important role in the accuracy of solutions. We start with a brief introduction on how these methods expand upon this framework. We observe an excellent agreement between these methods and have shown that how fine-tuning a pre-trained network to a specialized domain may lead to an outstanding performance compare to the existing ones. As proof of concept, we illustrate the performance of our proposed model on several benchmark problems.
Evaporation is a very important process; it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, evaporation is considered as a complex and nonlinear phenomenon to model. Thus, machine learning methods have gained popularity in this realm. In the present study, four machine learning methods of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to predict the pan evaporation (PE). Meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W), and sunny hours (S) collected from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The results of this study showed that at Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, GPR with RMSE of 1.521 mm/day, 1.244 mm/day, and 1.254 mm/day, KNN with RMSE of 1.991 mm/day, 1.775 mm/day, and 1.577 mm/day, RF with RMSE of 1.614 mm/day, 1.337 mm/day, and 1.316 mm/day, and SVR with RMSE of 1.55 mm/day, 1.262 mm/day, and 1.275 mm/day had more appropriate performances in estimating PE values. It was found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W and S had the most accurate predictions and were proposed for precise estimation of PE. The findings of the current study indicated that the PE values may be accurately estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters.
Cyber security has become a major concern for users and businesses alike. Cyberstalking and harassment have been identified as a growing anti-social problem. Besides detecting cyberstalking and harassment, there is the need to gather digital evidence, often by the victim. To this end, we provide an overview of and discuss relevant technological means, in particular coming from text analytics as well as machine learning, that are capable to address the above challenges. We present a framework for the detection of text-based cyberstalking and the role and challenges of some core techniques such as author identification, text classification and personalisation. We then discuss PAN, a network and evaluation initiative that focusses on digital text forensics, in particular author identification.
Earthquake is among the most devastating natural disasters causing severe economical, environmental, and social destruction. Earthquake safety assessment and building hazard monitoring can highly contribute to urban sustainability through identification and insight into optimum materials and structures. While the vulnerability of structures mainly depends on the structural resistance, the safety assessment of buildings can be highly challenging. In this paper, we consider the Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) method, which is a qualitative procedure for estimating structural scores for buildings suitable for medium- to high-seismic cases. This paper presents an overview of the common RVS methods, i.e., FEMA P-154, IITK-GGSDMA, and EMPI. To examine the accuracy and validation, a practical comparison is performed between their assessment and observed damage of reinforced concrete buildings from a street survey in the Bingöl region, Turkey, after the 1 May 2003 earthquake. The results demonstrate that the application of RVS methods for preliminary damage estimation is a vital tool. Furthermore, the comparative analysis showed that FEMA P-154 creates an assessment that overestimates damage states and is not economically viable, while EMPI and IITK-GGSDMA provide more accurate and practical estimation, respectively.
The seismic vulnerability assessment of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings is a significant source of disaster mitigation plans and rescue services. Different countries evolved various Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) techniques and methodologies to deal with the devastating consequences of earthquakes on the structural characteristics of buildings and human casualties. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods, such as machine learning (ML) algorithm-based methods, are increasingly used in various scientific and technical applications. The investigation toward using these techniques in civil engineering applications has shown encouraging results and reduced human intervention, including uncertainties and biased judgment. In this study, several known non-parametric algorithms are investigated toward RVS using a dataset employing different earthquakes. Moreover, the methodology encourages the possibility of examining the buildings’ vulnerability based on the factors related to the buildings’ importance and exposure. In addition, a web-based application built on Django is introduced. The interface is designed with the idea to ease the seismic vulnerability investigation in real-time. The concept was validated using two case studies, and the achieved results showed the proposed approach’s potential efficiency
A vast number of existing buildings were constructed before the development and enforcement of seismic design codes, which run into the risk of being severely damaged under the action of seismic excitations. This poses not only a threat to the life of people but also affects the socio-economic stability in the affected area. Therefore, it is necessary to assess such buildings’ present vulnerability to make an educated decision regarding risk mitigation by seismic strengthening techniques such as retrofitting. However, it is economically and timely manner not feasible to inspect, repair, and augment every old building on an urban scale. As a result, a reliable rapid screening methods, namely Rapid Visual Screening (RVS), have garnered increasing interest among researchers and decision-makers alike. In this study, the effectiveness of five different Machine Learning (ML) techniques in vulnerability prediction applications have been investigated. The damage data of four different earthquakes from Ecuador, Haiti, Nepal, and South Korea, have been utilized to train and test the developed models. Eight performance modifiers have been implemented as variables with a supervised ML. The investigations on this paper illustrate that the assessed vulnerability classes by ML techniques were very close to the actual damage levels observed in the buildings.
In this research, an attempt was made to reduce the dimension of wavelet-ANFIS/ANN (artificial neural network/adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) models toward reliable forecasts as well as to decrease computational cost. In this regard, the principal component analysis was performed on the input time series decomposed by a discrete wavelet transform to feed the ANN/ANFIS models. The models were applied for dissolved oxygen (DO) forecasting in rivers which is an important variable affecting aquatic life and water quality. The current values of DO, water surface temperature, salinity, and turbidity have been considered as the input variable to forecast DO in a three-time step further. The results of the study revealed that PCA can be employed as a powerful tool for dimension reduction of input variables and also to detect inter-correlation of input variables. Results of the PCA-wavelet-ANN models are compared with those obtained from wavelet-ANN models while the earlier one has the advantage of less computational time than the later models. Dealing with ANFIS models, PCA is more beneficial to avoid wavelet-ANFIS models creating too many rules which deteriorate the efficiency of the ANFIS models. Moreover, manipulating the wavelet-ANFIS models utilizing PCA leads to a significant decreasing in computational time. Finally, it was found that the PCA-wavelet-ANN/ANFIS models can provide reliable forecasts of dissolved oxygen as an important water quality indicator in rivers.
Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps potentially endanger the stability of stilling basins. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling of the results of laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the extreme pressures. Experiments were carried out on a smooth stilling basin underneath free hydraulic jumps downstream of an Ogee spillway. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, pressures with different probabilities could be determined. It was verified that maximum pressure fluctuations, and the negative pressures, are located at the positions near the spillway toe. Also, minimum pressure fluctuations are located at the downstream of hydraulic jumps. It was possible to assess the cumulative curves of pressure data related to the characteristic points along the basin, and different Froude numbers. To benchmark the results, the dimensionless forms of statistical parameters include mean pressures (P*m), the standard deviations of pressure fluctuations (σ*X), pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities (P*k%), and the statistical coefficient of the probability distribution (Nk%) were assessed. It was found that an existing method can be used to interpret the present data, and pressure distribution in similar conditions, by using a new second-order fractional relationships for σ*X, and Nk%. The values of the Nk% coefficient indicated a single mean value for each probability.
The economic losses from earthquakes tend to hit the national economy considerably; therefore, models that are capable of estimating the vulnerability and losses of future earthquakes are highly consequential for emergency planners with the purpose of risk mitigation. This demands a mass prioritization filtering of structures to identify vulnerable buildings for retrofitting purposes. The application of advanced structural analysis on each building to study the earthquake response is impractical due to complex calculations, long computational time, and exorbitant cost. This exhibits the need for a fast, reliable, and rapid method, commonly known as Rapid Visual Screening (RVS). The method serves as a preliminary screening platform, using an optimum number of seismic parameters of the structure and predefined output damage states. In this study, the efficacy of the Machine Learning (ML) application in damage prediction through a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model as the damage classification technique has been investigated. The developed model was trained and examined based on damage data from the 1999 Düzce Earthquake in Turkey, where the building’s data consists of 22 performance modifiers that have been implemented with supervised machine learning.