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A Hybrid Clustering and Classification Technique for Forecasting Short-Term Energy Consumption
(2018)
Electrical energy distributor companies in Iran have to announce their energy demand at least three 3-day ahead of the market opening. Therefore, an accurate load estimation is highly crucial. This research invoked methodology based on CRISP data mining and used SVM, ANN, and CBA-ANN-SVM (a novel hybrid model of clustering with both widely used ANN and SVM) to predict short-term electrical energy demand of Bandarabbas. In previous studies, researchers introduced few effective parameters with no reasonable error about Bandarabbas power consumption. In this research we tried to recognize all efficient parameters and with the use of CBA-ANN-SVM model, the rate of error has been minimized. After consulting with experts in the field of power consumption and plotting daily power consumption for each week, this research showed that official holidays and weekends have impact on the power consumption. When the weather gets warmer, the consumption of electrical energy increases due to turning on electrical air conditioner. Also, con-sumption patterns in warm and cold months are different. Analyzing power consumption of the same month for different years had shown high similarity in power consumption patterns. Factors with high impact on power consumption were identified and statistical methods were utilized to prove their impacts. Using SVM, ANN and CBA-ANN-SVM, the model was built. Sine the proposed method (CBA-ANN-SVM) has low MAPE 5 1.474 (4 clusters) and MAPE 5 1.297 (3 clusters) in comparison with SVM (MAPE 5 2.015) and ANN (MAPE 5 1.790), this model was selected as the final model. The final model has the benefits from both models and the benefits of clustering. Clustering algorithm with discovering data structure, divides data into several clusters based on similarities and differences between them. Because data inside each cluster are more similar than entire data, modeling in each cluster will present better results. For future research, we suggest using fuzzy methods and genetic algorithm or a hybrid of both to forecast each cluster. It is also possible to use fuzzy methods or genetic algorithms or a hybrid of both without using clustering. It is issued that such models will produce better and more accurate results.
This paper presents a hybrid approach to predict the electric energy usage of weather-sensitive loads. The presented methodutilizes the clustering paradigm along with ANN and SVMapproaches for accurate short-term prediction of electric energyusage, using weather data. Since the methodology beinginvoked in this research is based on CRISP data mining, datapreparation has received a gr eat deal of attention in thisresear ch. Once data pre-processing was done, the underlyingpattern of electric energy consumption was extracted by themeans of machine learning methods to precisely forecast short-term energy consumption. The proposed approach (CBA-ANN-SVM) was applied to real load data and resulting higher accu-racy comparing to the existing models.
2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 2018
https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12934
In the field of engineering, surrogate models are commonly used for approximating the behavior of a physical phenomenon in order to reduce the computational costs. Generally, a surrogate model is created based on a set of training data, where a typical method for the statistical design is the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Even though a space filling distribution of the training data is reached, the sampling process takes no information on the underlying behavior of the physical phenomenon into account and new data cannot be sampled in the same distribution if the approximation quality is not sufficient. Therefore, in this study we present a novel adaptive sampling method based on a specific surrogate model, the least-squares support vector regresson. The adaptive sampling method generates training data based on the uncertainty in local prognosis capabilities of the surrogate model - areas of higher uncertainty require more sample data. The approach offers a cost efficient calculation due to the properties of the least-squares support vector regression. The opportunities of the adaptive sampling method are proven in comparison with the LHS on different analytical examples. Furthermore, the adaptive sampling method is applied to the calculation of global sensitivity values according to Sobol, where it shows faster convergence than the LHS method. With the applications in this paper it is shown that the presented adaptive sampling method improves the estimation of global sensitivity values, hence reducing the overall computational costs visibly.
In this work, molecular separation of aqueous-organic was simulated by using combined soft computing-mechanistic approaches. The considered separation system was a microporous membrane contactor for separation of benzoic acid from water by contacting with an organic phase containing extractor molecules. Indeed, extractive separation is carried out using membrane technology where complex of solute-organic is formed at the interface. The main focus was to develop a simulation methodology for prediction of concentration distribution of solute (benzoic acid) in the feed side of the membrane system, as the removal efficiency of the system is determined by concentration distribution of the solute in the feed channel. The pattern of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was optimized by finding the optimum membership function, learning percentage, and a number of rules. The ANFIS was trained using the extracted data from the CFD simulation of the membrane system. The comparisons between the predicted concentration distribution by ANFIS and CFD data revealed that the optimized ANFIS pattern can be used as a predictive tool for simulation of the process. The R2 of higher than 0.99 was obtained for the optimized ANFIS model. The main privilege of the developed methodology is its very low computational time for simulation of the system and can be used as a rigorous simulation tool for understanding and design of membrane-based systems.
Highlights are, Molecular separation using microporous membranes. Developing hybrid model based on ANFIS-CFD for the separation process, Optimization of ANFIS structure for prediction of separation process