31 Mathematik
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This study aims to evaluate a new approach in modeling gully erosion susceptibility (GES) based on a deep learning neural network (DLNN) model and an ensemble particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm with DLNN (PSO-DLNN), comparing these approaches with common artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) models in Shirahan watershed, Iran. For this purpose, 13 independent variables affecting GES in the study area, namely, altitude, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, drainage density, distance from a river, land use, soil, lithology, rainfall, stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI), were prepared. A total of 132 gully erosion locations were identified during field visits. To implement the proposed model, the dataset was divided into the two categories of training (70%) and testing (30%). The results indicate that the area under the curve (AUC) value from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) considering the testing datasets of PSO-DLNN is 0.89, which indicates superb accuracy. The rest of the models are associated with optimal accuracy and have similar results to the PSO-DLNN model; the AUC values from ROC of DLNN, SVM, and ANN for the testing datasets are 0.87, 0.85, and 0.84, respectively. The efficiency of the proposed model in terms of prediction of GES was increased. Therefore, it can be concluded that the DLNN model and its ensemble with the PSO algorithm can be used as a novel and practical method to predict gully erosion susceptibility, which can help planners and managers to manage and reduce the risk of this phenomenon.
Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing the variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then, the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Additionally, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation.
In this research, an attempt was made to reduce the dimension of wavelet-ANFIS/ANN (artificial neural network/adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) models toward reliable forecasts as well as to decrease computational cost. In this regard, the principal component analysis was performed on the input time series decomposed by a discrete wavelet transform to feed the ANN/ANFIS models. The models were applied for dissolved oxygen (DO) forecasting in rivers which is an important variable affecting aquatic life and water quality. The current values of DO, water surface temperature, salinity, and turbidity have been considered as the input variable to forecast DO in a three-time step further. The results of the study revealed that PCA can be employed as a powerful tool for dimension reduction of input variables and also to detect inter-correlation of input variables. Results of the PCA-wavelet-ANN models are compared with those obtained from wavelet-ANN models while the earlier one has the advantage of less computational time than the later models. Dealing with ANFIS models, PCA is more beneficial to avoid wavelet-ANFIS models creating too many rules which deteriorate the efficiency of the ANFIS models. Moreover, manipulating the wavelet-ANFIS models utilizing PCA leads to a significant decreasing in computational time. Finally, it was found that the PCA-wavelet-ANN/ANFIS models can provide reliable forecasts of dissolved oxygen as an important water quality indicator in rivers.