56.03 Methoden im Bauingenieurwesen
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The present research analyses the error on prediction obtained under different data availability scenarios to determine which measurements contribute to an improvement of model prognosis and which not. A fully coupled 2D hydromechanical model of a water retaining dam is taken as an example. Here, the mean effective stress in the porous skeleton is reduced due to an increase in pore water pressure under drawdown conditions. Relevant model parameters are ranked by scaled sensitivities, Particle Swarm Optimization is applied to determine the optimal parameter values and model validation is performed to determine the magnitude of error forecast. We compare the predictions of the optimized models with results from a forward run of the reference model to obtain actual prediction errors.
The analyses presented here were performed to 31 data sets of 100 observations of varying data types. Calibrating with multiple information types instead of only one sort, brings better calibration results and improvement in model prognosis. However, when using several types of information the number of observations have to be increased to be able to cover a representative part of the model domain; otherwise a compromise between data availability and domain
coverage prove best. Which type of information for calibration contributes to the best prognoses, could not be determined in advance. For the error in model prognosis does not depends on the error in calibration, but on the parameter error, which unfortunately can not be determined in reality since we do not know its real value. Excellent calibration fits with parameters’ values near the limits of reasonable physical values, provided the highest prognosis errors. While models which included excess pore pressure values for calibration provided the best prognosis, independent of the calibration fit.
Long-span cable supported bridges are prone to aerodynamic instabilities caused by wind and this phenomenon is usually a major design criterion. If the wind speed exceeds the critical flutter speed of the bridge, this constitutes an Ultimate Limit State. The prediction of the flutter boundary therefore requires accurate and robust models. This paper aims at studying various combinations of models to predict the flutter phenomenon.
Since flutter is a coupling of aerodynamic forcing with a structural dynamics problem, different types and classes of models can be combined to study the interaction. Here, both numerical approaches and analytical models are utilised and coupled in different ways to assess the prediction quality of the hybrid model. Models for aerodynamic forces employed are the analytical Theodorsen expressions for the motion-enduced aerodynamic forces of a flat plate and Scanlan derivatives as a Meta model. Further, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations using the Vortex Particle Method (VPM) were used to cover numerical models.
The structural representations were dimensionally reduced to two degree of freedom section models calibrated from global models as well as a fully three-dimensional Finite Element (FE) model. A two degree of freedom system was analysed analytically as well as numerically.
Generally, all models were able to predict the flutter phenomenon and relatively close agreement was found for the particular bridge. In conclusion, the model choice for a given practical analysis scenario will be discussed in the context of the analysis findings.
Methods for model quality assessment are aiming to find the most appropriate model with respect to accuracy and computational effort for a structural system under investigation. Model error estimation techniques can be applied for this purpose when kinematical models are investigated. They are counted among the class of white box models, which means that the model hierarchy and therewith the best model is known. This thesis gives an overview of discretisation error estimators. Deduced from these, methods for model error estimation are presented. Their general goal is to make a prediction of the inaccuracies that are introduced using the simpler model without knowing the solution of a more complex model. This information can be used to steer an adaptive process. Techniques for linear and non-linear problems as well as global and goal-oriented errors are introduced. The estimation of the error in local quantities is realised by solving a dual problem, which serves as a weight for the primal error. So far, such techniques have mainly been applied in
material modelling and for dimensional adaptivity. Within the scope of this thesis, available model error estimators are adapted for an application to kinematical models. Their applicability is tested regarding the question of whether a geometrical non-linear calculation is necessary or not. The analysis is limited to non-linear estimators due to the structure of the underlying differential equations. These methods often involve simplification, e.g linearisations. It is investigated to which extent such assumptions lead to meaningful results, when applied to kinematical models.
Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von Methoden, mit denen die Prognosequalität von Kriechmodellen des Betons bestimmt werden kann. Die Methoden werden in zwei Ausgangsszenarien unterschieden: die Bewertung ohne und die Bewertung mit Verwendung von spezifischen Versuchsdaten zum Kriechverhalten des Betons. Die Modellqualität wird anhand der Gesamtunsicherheit der prognostizierten Kriechnachgiebigkeit quantifiziert. Die Unsicherheit wird für die Kriechprognose ohne Versuchsdaten über eine Unsicherheitsanalyse unter Berücksichtigung korrelierter Eingangsparameter ermittelt. Bei der Verwendung experimenteller Daten werden die stochastischen Eigenschaften der Modellparameter mittels Bayesian Updating bestimmt. Die Bewertung erfolgt erneut basierend auf einer Unsicherheitsanalyse sowie alternativ mittels Modellselektion nach Bayes.
Weiterhin wird eine auf Graphentheorie und Sensitivitätsanalysen basierende Methode zur Bewertung von gekoppelten Partialmodellen entwickelt. Damit wird der Einfluss eines Partialmodells auf das Verhalten einer globalen Tragstruktur quantifiziert, Interaktionen von Partialmodellen festgestellt und ein Maß für die Qualität eines Gesamtmodells ermittelt.