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Management strategies for sustainable sugarcane production need to deal with the increasing complexity and variability of the whole sugar system. Moreover, they need to accommodate the multiple goals of different industry sectors and the wider community. Traditional disciplinary approaches are unable to provide integrated management solutions, and an approach based on whole systems analysis is essential to bring about beneficial change to industry and the community. The application of this approach to water management, environmental management and cane supply management is outlined, where the literature indicates that the application of extreme learning machine (ELM) has never been explored in this realm. Consequently, the leading objective of the current research was set to filling this gap by applying ELM to launch swift and accurate model for crop production data-driven. The key learning has been the need for innovation both in the technical aspects of system function underpinned by modelling of sugarcane growth. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to establish an integrate model using ELM to predict the concluding growth amount of sugarcane. Prediction results were evaluated and further compared with artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming models. Accuracy of the ELM model is calculated using the statistics indicators of Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Coefficient (r), and Coefficient of Determination (R2) with promising results of 0.8, 0.47, and 0.89, respectively. The results also show better generalization ability in addition to faster learning curve. Thus, proficiency of the ELM for supplementary work on advancement of prediction model for sugarcane growth was approved with promising results.
The production of a desired product needs an effective use of the experimental model. The present study proposes an extreme learning machine (ELM) and a support vector machine (SVM) integrated with the response surface methodology (RSM) to solve the complexity in optimization and prediction of the ethyl ester and methyl ester production process. The novel hybrid models of ELM-RSM and ELM-SVM are further used as a case study to estimate the yield of methyl and ethyl esters through a trans-esterification process from waste cooking oil (WCO) based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. The results of the prediction phase were also compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which were recently developed by the second author of this study. Based on the results, an ELM with a correlation coefficient of 0.9815 and 0.9863 for methyl and ethyl esters, respectively, had a high estimation capability compared with that for SVM, ANNs, and ANFIS. Accordingly, the maximum production yield was obtained in the case of using ELM-RSM of 96.86% for ethyl ester at a temperature of 68.48 °C, a catalyst value of 1.15 wt. %, mixing intensity of 650.07 rpm, and an alcohol to oil molar ratio (A/O) of 5.77; for methyl ester, the production yield was 98.46% at a temperature of 67.62 °C, a catalyst value of 1.1 wt. %, mixing intensity of 709.42 rpm, and an A/O of 6.09. Therefore, ELM-RSM increased the production yield by 3.6% for ethyl ester and 3.1% for methyl ester, compared with those for the experimental data.
Biodiesel, as the main alternative fuel to diesel fuel which is produced from renewable and available resources, improves the engine emissions during combustion in diesel engines. In this study, the biodiesel is produced initially from waste cooking oil (WCO). The fuel samples are applied in a diesel engine and the engine performance has been considered from the viewpoint of exergy and energy approaches. Engine tests are performed at a constant 1500 rpm speed with various loads and fuel samples. The obtained experimental data are also applied to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Response surface methodology (RSM) is employed to optimize the exergy and energy efficiencies. Based on the results of the energy analysis, optimal engine performance is obtained at 80% of full load in presence of B10 and B20 fuels. However, based on the exergy analysis results, optimal engine performance is obtained at 80% of full load in presence of B90 and B100 fuels. The optimum values of exergy and energy efficiencies are in the range of 25–30% of full load, which is the same as the calculated range obtained from mathematical modeling.
A Hybrid Clustering and Classification Technique for Forecasting Short-Term Energy Consumption
(2018)
Electrical energy distributor companies in Iran have to announce their energy demand at least three 3-day ahead of the market opening. Therefore, an accurate load estimation is highly crucial. This research invoked methodology based on CRISP data mining and used SVM, ANN, and CBA-ANN-SVM (a novel hybrid model of clustering with both widely used ANN and SVM) to predict short-term electrical energy demand of Bandarabbas. In previous studies, researchers introduced few effective parameters with no reasonable error about Bandarabbas power consumption. In this research we tried to recognize all efficient parameters and with the use of CBA-ANN-SVM model, the rate of error has been minimized. After consulting with experts in the field of power consumption and plotting daily power consumption for each week, this research showed that official holidays and weekends have impact on the power consumption. When the weather gets warmer, the consumption of electrical energy increases due to turning on electrical air conditioner. Also, con-sumption patterns in warm and cold months are different. Analyzing power consumption of the same month for different years had shown high similarity in power consumption patterns. Factors with high impact on power consumption were identified and statistical methods were utilized to prove their impacts. Using SVM, ANN and CBA-ANN-SVM, the model was built. Sine the proposed method (CBA-ANN-SVM) has low MAPE 5 1.474 (4 clusters) and MAPE 5 1.297 (3 clusters) in comparison with SVM (MAPE 5 2.015) and ANN (MAPE 5 1.790), this model was selected as the final model. The final model has the benefits from both models and the benefits of clustering. Clustering algorithm with discovering data structure, divides data into several clusters based on similarities and differences between them. Because data inside each cluster are more similar than entire data, modeling in each cluster will present better results. For future research, we suggest using fuzzy methods and genetic algorithm or a hybrid of both to forecast each cluster. It is also possible to use fuzzy methods or genetic algorithms or a hybrid of both without using clustering. It is issued that such models will produce better and more accurate results.
This paper presents a hybrid approach to predict the electric energy usage of weather-sensitive loads. The presented methodutilizes the clustering paradigm along with ANN and SVMapproaches for accurate short-term prediction of electric energyusage, using weather data. Since the methodology beinginvoked in this research is based on CRISP data mining, datapreparation has received a gr eat deal of attention in thisresear ch. Once data pre-processing was done, the underlyingpattern of electric energy consumption was extracted by themeans of machine learning methods to precisely forecast short-term energy consumption. The proposed approach (CBA-ANN-SVM) was applied to real load data and resulting higher accu-racy comparing to the existing models.
2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 2018
https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12934