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The production of a desired product needs an effective use of the experimental model. The present study proposes an extreme learning machine (ELM) and a support vector machine (SVM) integrated with the response surface methodology (RSM) to solve the complexity in optimization and prediction of the ethyl ester and methyl ester production process. The novel hybrid models of ELM-RSM and ELM-SVM are further used as a case study to estimate the yield of methyl and ethyl esters through a trans-esterification process from waste cooking oil (WCO) based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. The results of the prediction phase were also compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which were recently developed by the second author of this study. Based on the results, an ELM with a correlation coefficient of 0.9815 and 0.9863 for methyl and ethyl esters, respectively, had a high estimation capability compared with that for SVM, ANNs, and ANFIS. Accordingly, the maximum production yield was obtained in the case of using ELM-RSM of 96.86% for ethyl ester at a temperature of 68.48 °C, a catalyst value of 1.15 wt. %, mixing intensity of 650.07 rpm, and an alcohol to oil molar ratio (A/O) of 5.77; for methyl ester, the production yield was 98.46% at a temperature of 67.62 °C, a catalyst value of 1.1 wt. %, mixing intensity of 709.42 rpm, and an A/O of 6.09. Therefore, ELM-RSM increased the production yield by 3.6% for ethyl ester and 3.1% for methyl ester, compared with those for the experimental data.
Along with environmental pollution, urban planning has been connected to public health. The research indicates that the quality of built environments plays an important role in reducing mental disorders and overall health. The structure and shape of the city are considered as one of the factors influencing happiness and health in urban communities and the type of the daily activities of citizens. The aim of this study was to promote physical activity in the main structure of the city via urban design in a way that the main form and morphology of the city can encourage citizens to move around and have physical activity within the city. Functional, physical, cultural-social, and perceptual-visual features are regarded as the most important and effective criteria in increasing physical activities in urban spaces, based on literature review. The environmental quality of urban spaces and their role in the physical activities of citizens in urban spaces were assessed by using the questionnaire tool and analytical network process (ANP) of structural equation modeling. Further, the space syntax method was utilized to evaluate the role of the spatial integration of urban spaces on improving physical activities. Based on the results, consideration of functional diversity, spatial flexibility and integration, security, and the aesthetic and visual quality of urban spaces plays an important role in improving the physical health of citizens in urban spaces. Further, more physical activities, including motivation for walking and the sense of public health and happiness, were observed in the streets having higher linkage and space syntax indexes with their surrounding texture.
Management strategies for sustainable sugarcane production need to deal with the increasing complexity and variability of the whole sugar system. Moreover, they need to accommodate the multiple goals of different industry sectors and the wider community. Traditional disciplinary approaches are unable to provide integrated management solutions, and an approach based on whole systems analysis is essential to bring about beneficial change to industry and the community. The application of this approach to water management, environmental management and cane supply management is outlined, where the literature indicates that the application of extreme learning machine (ELM) has never been explored in this realm. Consequently, the leading objective of the current research was set to filling this gap by applying ELM to launch swift and accurate model for crop production data-driven. The key learning has been the need for innovation both in the technical aspects of system function underpinned by modelling of sugarcane growth. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to establish an integrate model using ELM to predict the concluding growth amount of sugarcane. Prediction results were evaluated and further compared with artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming models. Accuracy of the ELM model is calculated using the statistics indicators of Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Coefficient (r), and Coefficient of Determination (R2) with promising results of 0.8, 0.47, and 0.89, respectively. The results also show better generalization ability in addition to faster learning curve. Thus, proficiency of the ELM for supplementary work on advancement of prediction model for sugarcane growth was approved with promising results.
Following restructuring of power industry, electricity supply to end-use customers has undergone fundamental changes. In the restructured power system, some of the responsibilities of the vertically integrated distribution companies have been assigned to network managers and retailers. Under the new situation, retailers are in charge of providing electrical energy to electricity consumers who have already signed contract with them. Retailers usually provide the required energy at a variable price, from wholesale electricity markets, forward contracts with energy producers, or distributed energy generators, and sell it at a fixed retail price to its clients. Different strategies are implemented by retailers to reduce the potential financial losses and risks associated with the uncertain nature of wholesale spot electricity market prices and electrical load of the consumers. In this paper, the strategic behavior of retailers in implementing forward contracts, distributed energy sources, and demand-response programs with the aim of increasing their profit and reducing their risk, while keeping their retail prices as low as possible, is investigated. For this purpose, risk management problem of the retailer companies collaborating with wholesale electricity markets, is modeled through bi-level programming approach and a comprehensive framework for retail electricity pricing, considering customers’ constraints, is provided in this paper. In the first level of the proposed bi-level optimization problem, the retailer maximizes its expected profit for a given risk level of profit variability, while in the second level, the customers minimize their consumption costs. The proposed programming problem is modeled as Mixed Integer programming (MIP) problem and can be efficiently solved using available commercial solvers. The simulation results on a test case approve the effectiveness of the proposed demand-response program based on dynamic pricing approach on reducing the retailer’s risk and increasing its profit.
In this paper, the decision-making problem of the retailers under dynamic pricing approach for demand response integration have been investigated. The retailer was supposed to rely on forward contracts, DGs, and spot electricity market to supply the required active and reactive power of its customers. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, four schemes for retailer’s scheduling problem are considered and the resulted profit under each scheme are analyzed and compared. The simulation results on a test case indicate that providing more options for the retailer to buy the required power of its customers and increase its flexibility in buying energy from spot electricity market reduces the retailers’ risk and increases its profit. From the customers’ perspective also the retailers’accesstodifferentpowersupplysourcesmayleadtoareductionintheretailelectricityprices. Since the retailer would be able to decrease its electricity selling price to the customers without losing its profitability, with the aim of attracting more customers. Inthiswork,theconditionalvalueatrisk(CVaR)measureisusedforconsideringandquantifying riskinthedecision-makingproblems. Amongallthepossibleoptioninfrontoftheretailertooptimize its profit and risk, demand response programs are the most beneficial option for both retailer and its customers. The simulation results on the case study prove that implementing dynamic pricing approach on retail electricity prices to integrate demand response programs can successfully provoke customers to shift their flexible demand from peak-load hours to mid-load and low-load hours. Comparing the simulation results of the third and fourth schemes evidences the impact of DRPs and customers’ load shifting on the reduction of retailer’s risk, as well as the reduction of retailer’s payment to contract holders, DG owners, and spot electricity market. Furthermore, the numerical results imply on the potential of reducing average retail prices up to 8%, under demand response activation. Consequently, it provides a win–win solution for both retailer and its customers.
Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing the variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then, the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Additionally, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation.
Hydrological drought forecasting plays a substantial role in water resources management. Hydrological drought highly affects the water allocation and hydropower generation. In this research, short term hydrological drought forecasted based on the hybridized of novel nature-inspired optimization algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). For this purpose, the Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated in one, three, and six aggregated months. Then, three states where proposed for SHDI forecasting, and 36 input-output combinations were extracted based on the cross-correlation analysis. In the next step, newly proposed optimization algorithms, including Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA), Salp Swarm algorithm (SSA), Biogeography-based optimization (BBO), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized with the ANN were utilized for SHDI forecasting and the results compared to the conventional ANN. Results indicated that the hybridized model outperformed compared to the conventional ANN. PSO performed better than the other optimization algorithms. The best models forecasted SHDI1 with R2 = 0.68 and RMSE = 0.58, SHDI3 with R 2 = 0.81 and RMSE = 0.45 and SHDI6 with R 2 = 0.82 and RMSE = 0.40.
Estimating the solubility of carbon dioxide in ionic liquids, using reliable models, is of paramount importance from both environmental and economic points of view. In this regard, the current research aims at evaluating the performance of two data-driven techniques, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP) and gene expression programming (GEP), for predicting the solubility of carbon dioxide (CO2) in ionic liquids (ILs) as the function of pressure, temperature, and four thermodynamical parameters of the ionic liquid. To develop the above techniques, 744 experimental data points derived from the literature including 13 ILs were used (80% of the points for training and 20% for validation). Two backpropagation-based methods, namely Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularization (BR), were applied to optimize the MLP algorithm. Various statistical and graphical assessments were applied to check the credibility of the developed techniques. The results were then compared with those calculated using Peng–Robinson (PR) or Soave–Redlich–Kwong (SRK) equations of state (EoS). The highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.9965) and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE = 0.0116) were recorded for the MLP-LMA model on the full dataset (with a negligible difference to the MLP-BR model). The comparison of results from this model with the vastly applied thermodynamic equation of state models revealed slightly better performance, but the EoS approaches also performed well with R2 from 0.984 up to 0.996. Lastly, the newly established correlation based on the GEP model exhibited very satisfactory results with overall values of R2 = 0.9896 and RMSE = 0.0201.
Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps potentially endanger the stability of stilling basins. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling of the results of laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the extreme pressures. Experiments were carried out on a smooth stilling basin underneath free hydraulic jumps downstream of an Ogee spillway. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, pressures with different probabilities could be determined. It was verified that maximum pressure fluctuations, and the negative pressures, are located at the positions near the spillway toe. Also, minimum pressure fluctuations are located at the downstream of hydraulic jumps. It was possible to assess the cumulative curves of pressure data related to the characteristic points along the basin, and different Froude numbers. To benchmark the results, the dimensionless forms of statistical parameters include mean pressures (P*m), the standard deviations of pressure fluctuations (σ*X), pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities (P*k%), and the statistical coefficient of the probability distribution (Nk%) were assessed. It was found that an existing method can be used to interpret the present data, and pressure distribution in similar conditions, by using a new second-order fractional relationships for σ*X, and Nk%. The values of the Nk% coefficient indicated a single mean value for each probability.
In this paper, an artificial neural network is implemented for the sake of predicting the thermal conductivity ratio of TiO2-Al2O3/water nanofluid. TiO2-Al2O3/water in the role of an innovative type of nanofluid was synthesized by the sol–gel method. The results indicated that 1.5 vol.% of nanofluids enhanced the thermal conductivity by up to 25%. It was shown that the heat transfer coefficient was linearly augmented with increasing nanoparticle concentration, but its variation with temperature was nonlinear. It should be noted that the increase in concentration may cause the particles to agglomerate, and then the thermal conductivity is reduced. The increase in temperature also increases the thermal conductivity, due to an increase in the Brownian motion and collision of particles. In this research, for the sake of predicting the thermal conductivity of TiO2-Al2O3/water nanofluid based on volumetric concentration and temperature functions, an artificial neural network is implemented. In this way, for predicting thermal conductivity, SOM (self-organizing map) and BP-LM (Back Propagation-Levenberq-Marquardt) algorithms were used. Based on the results obtained, these algorithms can be considered as an exceptional tool for predicting thermal conductivity. Additionally, the correlation coefficient values were equal to 0.938 and 0.98 when implementing the SOM and BP-LM algorithms, respectively, which is highly acceptable. View Full-Text
A novel combination of the ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO)and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data is proposed for modeling the multiphase chemical reactors. The proposed intelligent model presents a probabilistic computational strategy for predicting various levels of three-dimensional bubble column reactor (BCR) flow. The results prove an enhanced communication between ant colony prediction and CFD data in different sections of the BCR.
This study aims to evaluate a new approach in modeling gully erosion susceptibility (GES) based on a deep learning neural network (DLNN) model and an ensemble particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm with DLNN (PSO-DLNN), comparing these approaches with common artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) models in Shirahan watershed, Iran. For this purpose, 13 independent variables affecting GES in the study area, namely, altitude, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, drainage density, distance from a river, land use, soil, lithology, rainfall, stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI), were prepared. A total of 132 gully erosion locations were identified during field visits. To implement the proposed model, the dataset was divided into the two categories of training (70%) and testing (30%). The results indicate that the area under the curve (AUC) value from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) considering the testing datasets of PSO-DLNN is 0.89, which indicates superb accuracy. The rest of the models are associated with optimal accuracy and have similar results to the PSO-DLNN model; the AUC values from ROC of DLNN, SVM, and ANN for the testing datasets are 0.87, 0.85, and 0.84, respectively. The efficiency of the proposed model in terms of prediction of GES was increased. Therefore, it can be concluded that the DLNN model and its ensemble with the PSO algorithm can be used as a novel and practical method to predict gully erosion susceptibility, which can help planners and managers to manage and reduce the risk of this phenomenon.
We proposed two different time-dependent modeling approaches for variation of device characteristics of perovskite solar cells under stress conditions. The first approach follows Sah-Noyce-Shockley (SNS) model based on Shockley–Read–Hall recombination/generation across the depletion width of pn junction and the second approach is based on thermionic emission model for Schottky diodes. The connecting point of these approaches to time variation is the time-dependent defect generation in depletion width (W) of the junction. We have fitted the two models with experimental data reported in the literature to perovskite solar cell and found out that each model has a superior explanation for degradation of device metrics e.g. current density and efficiency by time under stress conditions. Nevertheless, the Sah-Noyce-Shockley model is more reliable than thermionic emission at least for solar cells.
Polylactic acid (PLA) is a highly applicable material that is used in 3D printers due to some significant features such as its deformation property and affordable cost. For improvement of the end-use quality, it is of significant importance to enhance the quality of fused filament fabrication (FFF)-printed objects in PLA. The purpose of this investigation was to boost toughness and to reduce the production cost of the FFF-printed tensile test samples with the desired part thickness. To remove the need for numerous and idle printing samples, the response surface method (RSM) was used. Statistical analysis was performed to deal with this concern by considering extruder temperature (ET), infill percentage (IP), and layer thickness (LT) as controlled factors. The artificial intelligence method of artificial neural network (ANN) and ANN-genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) were further developed to estimate the toughness, part thickness, and production-cost-dependent variables. Results were evaluated by correlation coefficient and RMSE values. According to the modeling results, ANN-GA as a hybrid machine learning (ML) technique could enhance the accuracy of modeling by about 7.5, 11.5, and 4.5% for toughness, part thickness, and production cost, respectively, in comparison with those for the single ANN method. On the other hand, the optimization results confirm that the optimized specimen is cost-effective and able to comparatively undergo deformation, which enables the usability of printed PLA objects.
Evaporation is a very important process; it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, evaporation is considered as a complex and nonlinear phenomenon to model. Thus, machine learning methods have gained popularity in this realm. In the present study, four machine learning methods of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to predict the pan evaporation (PE). Meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W), and sunny hours (S) collected from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The results of this study showed that at Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, GPR with RMSE of 1.521 mm/day, 1.244 mm/day, and 1.254 mm/day, KNN with RMSE of 1.991 mm/day, 1.775 mm/day, and 1.577 mm/day, RF with RMSE of 1.614 mm/day, 1.337 mm/day, and 1.316 mm/day, and SVR with RMSE of 1.55 mm/day, 1.262 mm/day, and 1.275 mm/day had more appropriate performances in estimating PE values. It was found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W and S had the most accurate predictions and were proposed for precise estimation of PE. The findings of the current study indicated that the PE values may be accurately estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters.
In this study, a new approach to basis of intelligent systems and machine learning algorithms is introduced for solving singular multi-pantograph differential equations (SMDEs). For the first time, a type-2 fuzzy logic based approach is formulated to find an approximated solution. The rules of the suggested type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS) are optimized by the square root cubature Kalman filter (SCKF) such that the proposed fineness function to be minimized. Furthermore, the stability and boundedness of the estimation error is proved by novel approach on basis of Lyapunov theorem. The accuracy and robustness of the suggested algorithm is verified by several statistical examinations. It is shown that the suggested method results in an accurate solution with rapid convergence and a lower computational cost.
For this paper, the problem of energy/voltage management in photovoltaic (PV)/battery systems was studied, and a new fractional-order control system on basis of type-3 (T3) fuzzy logic systems (FLSs) was developed. New fractional-order learning rules are derived for tuning of T3-FLSs such that the stability is ensured. In addition, using fractional-order calculus, the robustness was studied versus dynamic uncertainties, perturbation of irradiation, and temperature and abruptly faults in output loads, and, subsequently, new compensators were proposed. In several examinations under difficult operation conditions, such as random temperature, variable irradiation, and abrupt changes in output load, the capability of the schemed controller was verified. In addition, in comparison with other methods, such as proportional-derivative-integral (PID), sliding mode controller (SMC), passivity-based control systems (PBC), and linear quadratic regulator (LQR), the superiority of the suggested method was demonstrated.
FCS-MBFLEACH: Designing an Energy-Aware Fault Detection System for Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks
(2019)
Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) include large-scale sensor nodes that are densely distributed over a geographical region that is completely randomized for monitoring, identifying, and analyzing physical events. The crucial challenge in wireless sensor networks is the very high dependence of the sensor nodes on limited battery power to exchange information wirelessly as well as the non-rechargeable battery of the wireless sensor nodes, which makes the management and monitoring of these nodes in terms of abnormal changes very difficult. These anomalies appear under faults, including hardware, software, anomalies, and attacks by raiders, all of which affect the comprehensiveness of the data collected by wireless sensor networks. Hence, a crucial contraption should be taken to detect the early faults in the network, despite the limitations of the sensor nodes. Machine learning methods include solutions that can be used to detect the sensor node faults in the network. The purpose of this study is to use several classification methods to compute the fault detection accuracy with different densities under two scenarios in regions of interest such as MB-FLEACH, one-class support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy one-class, or a combination of SVM and FCS-MBFLEACH methods. It should be noted that in the study so far, no super cluster head (SCH) selection has been performed to detect node faults in the network. The simulation outcomes demonstrate that the FCS-MBFLEACH method has the best performance in terms of the accuracy of fault detection, false-positive rate (FPR), average remaining energy, and network lifetime compared to other classification methods.
Calculating hydrocarbon components solubility of natural gases is known as one of the important issues for operational works in petroleum and chemical engineering. In this work, a novel solubility estimation tool has been proposed for hydrocarbon gases—including methane, ethane, propane, and butane—in aqueous electrolyte solutions based on extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Comparing the ELM outputs with a comprehensive real databank which has 1175 solubility points yielded R-squared values of 0.985 and 0.987 for training and testing phases respectively. Furthermore, the visual comparison of estimated and actual hydrocarbon solubility led to confirm the ability of proposed solubility model. Additionally, sensitivity analysis has been employed on the input variables of model to identify their impacts on hydrocarbon solubility. Such a comprehensive and reliable study can help engineers and scientists to successfully determine the important thermodynamic properties, which are key factors in optimizing and designing different industrial units such as refineries and petrochemical plants.
In this study, machine learning methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), least squares support vector machines (LSSVM), and neuro-fuzzy are used for advancing prediction models for thermal performance of a photovoltaic-thermal solar collector (PV/T). In the proposed models, the inlet temperature, flow rate, heat, solar radiation, and the sun heat have been considered as the input variables. Data set has been extracted through experimental measurements from a novel solar collector system. Different analyses are performed to examine the credibility of the introduced models and evaluate their performances. The proposed LSSVM model outperformed the ANFIS and ANNs models. LSSVM model is reported suitable when the laboratory measurements are costly and time-consuming, or achieving such values requires sophisticated interpretations.
Piping erosion is one form of water erosion that leads to significant changes in the landscape and environmental degradation. In the present study, we evaluated piping erosion modeling in the Zarandieh watershed of Markazi province in Iran based on random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and Bayesian generalized linear models (Bayesian GLM) machine learning algorithms. For this goal, due to the importance of various geo-environmental and soil properties in the evolution and creation of piping erosion, 18 variables were considered for modeling the piping erosion susceptibility in the Zarandieh watershed. A total of 152 points of piping erosion were recognized in the study area that were divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) for modeling. The area under curve (AUC) was used to assess the effeciency of the RF, SVM, and Bayesian GLM. Piping erosion susceptibility results indicated that all three RF, SVM, and Bayesian GLM models had high efficiency in the testing step, such as the AUC shown with values of 0.9 for RF, 0.88 for SVM, and 0.87 for Bayesian GLM. Altitude, pH, and bulk density were the variables that had the greatest influence on the piping erosion susceptibility in the Zarandieh watershed. This result indicates that geo-environmental and soil chemical variables are accountable for the expansion of piping erosion in the Zarandieh watershed.