Universitätsbibliothek
Weimar Open Access

Electrical energy distributor companies in Iran have to announce their energy demand at least three 3-day ahead of the market opening. Therefore, an accurate load estimation is highly crucial. This research invoked methodology based on CRISP data mining and used SVM, ANN, and CBA-ANN-SVM (a novel hybrid model of clustering with both widely used ANN and SVM) to predict short-term electrical energy demand of Bandarabbas. In previous studies, researchers introduced few effective parameters with no reasonable error about Bandarabbas power consumption. In this research we tried to recognize all efficient parameters and with the use of CBA-ANN-SVM model, the rate of error has been minimized. After consulting with experts in the field of power consumption and plotting daily power consumption for each week, this research showed that official holidays and weekends have impact on the power consumption. When the weather gets warmer, the consumption of electrical energy increases due to turning on electrical air conditioner. Also, con-sumption patterns in warm and cold months are different. Analyzing power consumption of the same month for different years had shown high similarity in power consumption patterns. Factors with high impact on power consumption were identified and statistical methods were utilized to prove their impacts. Using SVM, ANN and CBA-ANN-SVM, the model was built. Sine the proposed method (CBA-ANN-SVM) has low MAPE 5 1.474 (4 clusters) and MAPE 5 1.297 (3 clusters) in comparison with SVM (MAPE 5 2.015) and ANN (MAPE 5 1.790), this model was selected as the final model. The final model has the benefits from both models and the benefits of clustering. Clustering algorithm with discovering data structure, divides data into several clusters based on similarities and differences between them. Because data inside each cluster are more similar than entire data, modeling in each cluster will present better results. For future research, we suggest using fuzzy methods and genetic algorithm or a hybrid of both to forecast each cluster. It is also possible to use fuzzy methods or genetic algorithms or a hybrid of both without using clustering. It is issued that such models will produce better and more accurate results. This paper presents a hybrid approach to predict the electric energy usage of weather-sensitive loads. The presented methodutilizes the clustering paradigm along with ANN and SVMapproaches for accurate short-term prediction of electric energyusage, using weather data. Since the methodology beinginvoked in this research is based on CRISP data mining, datapreparation has received a gr eat deal of attention in thisresear ch. Once data pre-processing was done, the underlyingpattern of electric energy consumption was extracted by themeans of machine learning methods to precisely forecast short-term energy consumption. The proposed approach (CBA-ANN-SVM) was applied to real load data and resulting higher accu-racy comparing to the existing models. 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12934

In this study, machine learning methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), least squares support vector machines (LSSVM), and neuro-fuzzy are used for advancing prediction models for thermal performance of a photovoltaic-thermal solar collector (PV/T). In the proposed models, the inlet temperature, flow rate, heat, solar radiation, and the sun heat have been considered as the input variables. Data set has been extracted through experimental measurements from a novel solar collector system. Different analyses are performed to examine the credibility of the introduced models and evaluate their performances. The proposed LSSVM model outperformed the ANFIS and ANNs models. LSSVM model is reported suitable when the laboratory measurements are costly and time-consuming, or achieving such values requires sophisticated interpretations.

Management strategies for sustainable sugarcane production need to deal with the increasing complexity and variability of the whole sugar system. Moreover, they need to accommodate the multiple goals of different industry sectors and the wider community. Traditional disciplinary approaches are unable to provide integrated management solutions, and an approach based on whole systems analysis is essential to bring about beneficial change to industry and the community. The application of this approach to water management, environmental management and cane supply management is outlined, where the literature indicates that the application of extreme learning machine (ELM) has never been explored in this realm. Consequently, the leading objective of the current research was set to filling this gap by applying ELM to launch swift and accurate model for crop production data-driven. The key learning has been the need for innovation both in the technical aspects of system function underpinned by modelling of sugarcane growth. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to establish an integrate model using ELM to predict the concluding growth amount of sugarcane. Prediction results were evaluated and further compared with artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming models. Accuracy of the ELM model is calculated using the statistics indicators of Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Coefficient (r), and Coefficient of Determination (R2) with promising results of 0.8, 0.47, and 0.89, respectively. The results also show better generalization ability in addition to faster learning curve. Thus, proficiency of the ELM for supplementary work on advancement of prediction model for sugarcane growth was approved with promising results.

Biodiesel, as the main alternative fuel to diesel fuel which is produced from renewable and available resources, improves the engine emissions during combustion in diesel engines. In this study, the biodiesel is produced initially from waste cooking oil (WCO). The fuel samples are applied in a diesel engine and the engine performance has been considered from the viewpoint of exergy and energy approaches. Engine tests are performed at a constant 1500 rpm speed with various loads and fuel samples. The obtained experimental data are also applied to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Response surface methodology (RSM) is employed to optimize the exergy and energy efficiencies. Based on the results of the energy analysis, optimal engine performance is obtained at 80% of full load in presence of B10 and B20 fuels. However, based on the exergy analysis results, optimal engine performance is obtained at 80% of full load in presence of B90 and B100 fuels. The optimum values of exergy and energy efficiencies are in the range of 25–30% of full load, which is the same as the calculated range obtained from mathematical modeling.

Due to the importance of identifying crop cultivars, the advancement of accurate assessment of cultivars is considered essential. The existing methods for identifying rice cultivars are mainly time-consuming, costly, and destructive. Therefore, the development of novel methods is highly beneficial. The aim of the present research is to classify common rice cultivars in Iran based on color, morphologic, and texture properties using artificial intelligence (AI) methods. In doing so, digital images of 13 rice cultivars in Iran in three forms of paddy, brown, and white are analyzed through pre-processing and segmentation of using MATLAB. Ninety-two specificities, including 60 color, 14 morphologic, and 18 texture properties, were identified for each rice cultivar. In the next step, the normal distribution of data was evaluated, and the possibility of observing a significant difference between all specificities of cultivars was studied using variance analysis. In addition, the least significant difference (LSD) test was performed to obtain a more accurate comparison between cultivars. To reduce data dimensions and focus on the most effective components, principal component analysis (PCA) was employed. Accordingly, the accuracy of rice cultivar separations was calculated for paddy, brown rice, and white rice using discriminant analysis (DA), which was 89.2%, 87.7%, and 83.1%, respectively. To identify and classify the desired cultivars, a multilayered perceptron neural network was implemented based on the most effective components. The results showed 100% accuracy of the network in identifying and classifying all mentioned rice cultivars. Hence, it is concluded that the integrated method of image processing and pattern recognition methods, such as statistical classification and artificial neural networks, can be used for identifying and classification of rice cultivars.