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The present research analyses the error on prediction obtained under different data availability scenarios to determine which measurements contribute to an improvement of model prognosis and which not. A fully coupled 2D hydromechanical model of a water retaining dam is taken as an example. Here, the mean effective stress in the porous skeleton is reduced due to an increase in pore water pressure under drawdown conditions. Relevant model parameters are ranked by scaled sensitivities, Particle Swarm Optimization is applied to determine the optimal parameter values and model validation is performed to determine the magnitude of error forecast. We compare the predictions of the optimized models with results from a forward run of the reference model to obtain actual prediction errors.
The analyses presented here were performed to 31 data sets of 100 observations of varying data types. Calibrating with multiple information types instead of only one sort, brings better calibration results and improvement in model prognosis. However, when using several types of information the number of observations have to be increased to be able to cover a representative part of the model domain; otherwise a compromise between data availability and domain
coverage prove best. Which type of information for calibration contributes to the best prognoses, could not be determined in advance. For the error in model prognosis does not depends on the error in calibration, but on the parameter error, which unfortunately can not be determined in reality since we do not know its real value. Excellent calibration fits with parameters’ values near the limits of reasonable physical values, provided the highest prognosis errors. While models which included excess pore pressure values for calibration provided the best prognosis, independent of the calibration fit.

Non-destructive techniques for damage detection became the focus of engineering interests in the last few years. However, applying these techniques to large complex structures like civil engineering buildings still has some limitations since these types of structures are
unique and the methodologies often need a large number of specimens for reliable results. For this reason, cost and time can greatly influence the final results.
Model Assisted Probability Of Detection (MAPOD) has taken its place among the ranks of damage identification techniques, especially with advances in computer capacity and modeling tools. Nevertheless, the essential condition for a successful MAPOD is having a reliable model in advance. This condition is opening the door for model assessment and model quality problems. In this work, an approach is proposed that uses Partial Models (PM) to compute the Probability Of damage Detection (POD). A simply supported beam, that can be structurally modified and
tested under laboratory conditions, is taken as an example. The study includes both experimental and numerical investigations, the application of vibration-based damage detection approaches and a comparison of the results obtained based on tests and simulations.
Eventually, a proposal for a methodology to assess the reliability and the robustness of the models is given.

Safety operation of important civil structures such as bridges can be estimated by using fracture analysis. Since the analytical methods are not capable of solving many complicated engineering problems, numerical methods have been increasingly adopted. In this paper, a part of isotropic material which contains a crack is considered as a partial model and the proposed model quality is evaluated. EXtended IsoGeometric Analysis (XIGA) is a new developed numerical approach [1, 2] which benefits from advantages of its origins: eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) and IsoGeometric Analysis (IGA). It is capable of simulating crack propagation problems with no remeshing necessity and capturing singular field at the crack tip by using the crack tip enrichment functions. Also, exact representation of geometry is possible using only few elements. XIGA has also been successfully applied for fracture analysis of cracked orthotropic bodies [3] and for simulation of curved cracks [4]. XIGA applies NURBS functions for both geometry description and solution field approximation. The drawback of NURBS functions is that local refinement cannot be defined regarding that it is based on tensorproduct constructs unless multiple patches are used which has also some limitations. In this contribution, the XIGA is further developed to make the local refinement feasible by using Tspline basis functions. Adopting a recovery based error estimator in the proposed approach for evaluation of the model quality and performing the adaptive processes is in progress. Finally, some numerical examples with available analytical solutions are investigated by the developed scheme.

Numerical simulations in the general field of civil engineering are common for the design process of structures and/or the assessment of existing buildings. The behaviour of these structures is analytically unknown and is approximated with numerical simulation methods like the Finite Element Method (FEM). Therefore the real structure is transferred into a global model (GM, e.g. concrete bridge) with a wide range of sub models (partial models PM, e.g. material modelling, creep). These partial models are coupled together to predict the behaviour of the observed structure (GM) under different conditions. The engineer needs to decide which models are suitable for computing realistically and efficiently the physical processes determining the structural behaviour. Theoretical knowledge along with the experience from prior design processes will influence this model selection decision. It is thus often a qualitative selection of different models. The goal of this paper is to present a quantitative evaluation of the global model quality according to the simulation of a bridge subject to direct loading (dead load, traffic) and indirect loading (temperature), which induce restraint effects. The model quality can be separately investigated for each partial model and also for the coupled partial models in a global structural model. Probabilistic simulations are necessary for the evaluation of these model qualities by using Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis. The method is applied to the simulation of a semi-integral concrete bridge with a monolithic connection between the superstructure and the piers, and elastomeric bearings at the abutments. The results show that the evaluation of global model quality is strongly dependent on the sensitivity of the considered partial models and their related quantitative prediction quality. This method is not only a relative comparison between different models, but also a quantitative representation of model quality using probabilistic simulation methods, which can support the process of model selection for numerical simulations in research and practice.

This paper presents a methodology for uncertainty quantification in cyclic creep analysis. Several models- , namely BP model, Whaley and Neville model, modified MC90 for cyclic loading and modified Hyperbolic function for cyclic loading are used for uncertainty quantification. Three types of uncertainty are included in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (i) natural variability in loading and materials properties; (ii) data uncertainty due to measurement errors; and (iii) modelling uncertainty and errors during cyclic creep analysis. Due to the consideration of all type of uncertainties, a measure for the total variation of the model response is achieved. The study finds that the BP, modified Hyperbolic and modified MC90 are best performing models for cyclic creep prediction in that order. Further, global Sensitivity Analysis (SA) considering the uncorrelated and correlated parameters is used to quantify the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the overall prediction uncertainty and to identifying the important parameters. The error in determining the input quantities and model itself can produce significant changes in creep prediction values. The variability influence of input random quantities on the cyclic creep was studied by means of the stochastic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis namely the Gartner et al. method and Saltelli et al. method. All input imperfections were considered to be random quantities. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) numerical simulation method (Monte Carlo type method) was used. It has been found by the stochastic sensitivity analysis that the cyclic creep deformation variability is most sensitive to the Elastic modulus of concrete, compressive strength, mean stress, cyclic stress amplitude, number of cycle, in that order.

A numerical analysis of the mode of deformation of the main load-bearing components of a typical frame sloping shaft headgear was performed. The analysis was done by a design model consisting of plane and solid finite elements, which were modeled in the program «LIRA». Due to the numerical results, the regularities of local stress distribution under a guide pulley bearing were revealed and parameters of a plane stress under both emergency and normal working loads were determined. In the numerical simulation, the guidelines to improve the construction of the joints of guide pulleys resting on sub-pulley frame-type structures were established. Overall, the results obtained are the basis for improving the engineering procedures of designing steel structures of shaft sloping headgear.

The topic of structural robustness is covered extensively in current literature in structural engineering. A few evaluation methods already exist. Since these methods are based on different evaluation approaches, the comparison is difficult. But all the approaches have one in common, they need a structural model which represents the structure to be evaluated. As the structural model is the basis of the robustness evaluation, there is the question if the quality of the chosen structural model is influencing the estimation of the structural robustness index. This paper shows what robustness in structural engineering means and gives an overview of existing assessment methods. One is the reliability based robustness index, which uses the reliability indices of a intact and a damaged structure. The second one is the risk based robustness index, which estimates the structural robustness by the usage of direct and indirect risk. The paper describes how these approaches for the evaluation of structural robustness works and which parameters will be used. Since both approaches needs a structural model for the estimation of the structural behavior and the probability of failure, it is necessary to think about the quality of the chosen structural model. Nevertheless, the chosen model has to represent the structure, the input factors and reflect the damages which occur. On the example of two different model qualities, it will be shown, that the model choice is really influencing the quality of the robustness index.

The aim of this study is to show an application of model robustness measures for soilstructure interaction (henceforth written as SSI) models. Model robustness defines a measure for the ability of a model to provide useful model answers for input parameters which typically have a wide range in geotechnical engineering. The calculation of SSI is a major problem in geotechnical engineering. Several different models exist for the estimation of SSI. These can be separated into analytical, semi-analytical and numerical methods. This paper focuses on the numerical models of SSI specific macro-element type models and more advanced finite element method models using contact description as continuum or interface elements. A brief description of the models used is given in the paper. Following this description, the applied SSI problem is introduced. The observed event is a static loaded shallow foundation with an inclined load. The different partial models to consider the SSI effects are assessed using different robustness measures during numerical application. The paper shows the investigation of the capability to use these measures for the assessment of the model quality of SSI partial models. A variance based robustness and a mathematical robustness approaches are applied. These different robustness measures are used in a framework which allows also the investigation of computational time consuming models. Finally the result shows that the concept of using robustness approaches combined with other model–quality indicators (e.g. model sensitivity or model reliability) can lead to unique model–quality assessment for SSI models.

The process of analysis and design in structural engineering requires the consideration of different partial models, for example loading, structural materials, structural elements, and analysis types. The various partial models are combined by coupling several of their components. Due to the large number of available partial models describing similar phenomena, many different model combinations are possible to simulate the same aspects of a structure. The challenging task of an engineer is to select a model combination that ensures a sufficient, reliable prognosis. In order to achieve this reliable prognosis of the overall structural behavior, a high individual quality of the partial models and an adequate coupling of the partial models is required. Several methodologies have been proposed to evaluate the quality of partial models for their intended application, but a detailed study of the coupling quality is still lacking. This paper proposes a new approach to assess the coupling quality of partial models in a quantitative manner. The approach is based on the consistency of the coupled data and applies for uni- and bidirectional coupled partial models. Furthermore, the influence of the coupling quality on the output quantities of the partial models is considered. The functionality of the algorithm and the effect of the coupling quality are demonstrated using an example of coupled partial models in structural engineering.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOCAL CONCAVITY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF BEARING SHELL OF HIGH-RISE CONSTRUCTION
(2012)

Areas with various defects and damages, which reduce carrying capacity, were examined in a study of metal chimneys. In this work, the influence of the local dimples on the function of metal chimneys was considered. Modeling tasks were completed in the software packages LIRA and ANSYS. Parameters were identified, which characterize the local dimples, and a numerical study of the influence of local dimples on the stress-strain state of shells of metal chimneys was conducted. A distribution field of circular and meridional tension was analyzed in a researched area. Zones of influence of dimples on the bearing cover of metal chimneys were investigated. The bearing capacities of high-rise structures with various dimple geometries and various cover parameters were determined with respect to specified areas of the trunk. Dependent relationships are represented graphically for the decrease in bearing capacity of a cover with respect to dimples. Diameter and thickness of covers of metal chimneys were constructed according to the resulting data.