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Risk-sensitive Markov Decision Process for Underground Construction Planning and Estimating

  • This paper presents an application of dynamic decision making under uncertainty in planning and estimating underground construction. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to an actual tunneling project—The Hanging Lake Tunnel Project in Colorado, USA. To encompass the typical risks in underground construction, tunneling decisions are structured as aThis paper presents an application of dynamic decision making under uncertainty in planning and estimating underground construction. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to an actual tunneling project—The Hanging Lake Tunnel Project in Colorado, USA. To encompass the typical risks in underground construction, tunneling decisions are structured as a risk-sensitive Markov decision process that reflects the decision process faced by a contractor in each tunneling round. This decision process consists of five basic components: (1) decision stages (locations), (2) system states (ground classes and tunneling methods), (3) alternatives (tunneling methods), (4) ground class transition probabilities, and (5) tunneling cost structure. The paper also presents concepts related to risk preference that are necessary to model the contractor’s risk attitude, including the lottery concept, utility theory, and the delta property. The optimality equation is formulated, the model components are defined, and the model is solved by stochastic dynamic programming. The main results are the optimal construction plans and risk-adjusted project costs, both of which reflect the dynamics of subsurface construction, the uncertainty about geologic variability as a function of available information, and the contractor’s risk preference.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Document Type:Article
Author: Veerasak Likhitruangsilp, Photios Ioannou
DOI (Cite-Link):https://doi.org/10.25643/bauhaus-universitaet.224Cite-Link
URN (Cite-Link):https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20111215-2247Cite-Link
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2004/11/16
Year of first Publication:2004
Release Date:2004/11/16
Institutes:Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen / Professur Informatik im Bauwesen
Tag:Kette; Markowschke
GND Keyword:Mehragentensystem; Lernendes System; Tunnel
Source:International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering , ICCCBE , 10 , 2004.06.02-04 , Weimar , Bauhaus-Universität
Dewey Decimal Classification:600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften / 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften und zugeordnete Tätigkeiten
BKL-Classification:54 Informatik / 54.89 Angewandte Informatik: Sonstiges
56 Bauwesen / 56.03 Methoden im Bauingenieurwesen
Collections:Bauhaus-Universität Weimar / International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, ICCCBE, Weimar / International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, ICCCBE, Weimar 10. 2004
Licence (German):License Logo In Copyright