On the use of climate models for estimating the non-stationary characteristic values of climatic actions in civil engineering practice
- The characteristic values of climatic actions in current structural design codes are based on a specified probability of exceedance during the design working life of a structure. These values are traditionally determined from the past observation data under a stationary climate assumption. However, this assumption becomes invalid in the context of climate change, where the frequency and intensityThe characteristic values of climatic actions in current structural design codes are based on a specified probability of exceedance during the design working life of a structure. These values are traditionally determined from the past observation data under a stationary climate assumption. However, this assumption becomes invalid in the context of climate change, where the frequency and intensity of climatic extremes varies with respect to time. This paper presents a methodology to calculate the non-stationary characteristic values using state of the art climate model projections. The non-stationary characteristic values are calculated in compliance with the requirements of structural design codes by forming quasi-stationary windows of the entire bias-corrected climate model data. Three approaches for the calculation of non-stationary characteristic values considering the design working life of a structure are compared and their consequences on exceedance probability are discussed.…
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| Document Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Author: | Jun.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Lars AbrahamczykORCiDGND, Aanis UzairORCiD |
| DOI (Cite-Link): | https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2023.1108328Cite-Link |
| URN (Cite-Link): | https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20230524-63751Cite-Link |
| URL: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2023.1108328/full |
| Parent Title (English): | Frontiers in Built Environment |
| Publisher: | Frontier Media |
| Place of publication: | Lausanne |
| Language: | English |
| Date of Publication (online): | 2023/05/22 |
| Date of first Publication: | 2023/01/30 |
| Release Date: | 2023/05/24 |
| Publishing Institution: | Bauhaus-Universität Weimar |
| Institutes and partner institutions: | Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen / Junior-Professur Komplexe Tragwerke |
| Volume: | 2023 |
| Issue: | volume 9, article 1108328 |
| Pagenumber: | 9 |
| First Page: | 1 |
| Last Page: | 9 |
| Tag: | characteristic value; climate change; climate models; extreme value analysis |
| GND Keyword: | Klimaänderung; Bauwerk |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften |
| BKL-Classification: | 56 Bauwesen / 56.11 Baukonstruktion |
| Open Access Publikationsfonds: | Open-Access-Publikationsfonds 2023 |
| Licence (German): |  Creative Commons 4.0 - Namensnennung (CC BY 4.0) |