TY - JOUR A1 - Dehghani, Majid A1 - Salehi, Somayeh A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Nabipour, Narjes A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Ghamisi, Pedram T1 - Spatial Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation over Iran: Co-Variation with Climate Indices JF - ISPRS, International Journal of Geo-Information N2 - Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing the variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then, the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Additionally, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation. KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Machine learning KW - spatiotemporal database KW - spatial analysis KW - seasonal precipitation KW - spearman correlation coefficient Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20200128-40740 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/9/2/73 VL - 2020 IS - Volume 9, Issue 2, 73 PB - MDPI ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Hosseini Imani, Mahmood A1 - Zalzar, Shaghayegh A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin T1 - Strategic Behavior of Retailers for Risk Reduction and Profit Increment via Distributed Generators and Demand Response Programs JF - Energies N2 - Following restructuring of power industry, electricity supply to end-use customers has undergone fundamental changes. In the restructured power system, some of the responsibilities of the vertically integrated distribution companies have been assigned to network managers and retailers. Under the new situation, retailers are in charge of providing electrical energy to electricity consumers who have already signed contract with them. Retailers usually provide the required energy at a variable price, from wholesale electricity markets, forward contracts with energy producers, or distributed energy generators, and sell it at a fixed retail price to its clients. Different strategies are implemented by retailers to reduce the potential financial losses and risks associated with the uncertain nature of wholesale spot electricity market prices and electrical load of the consumers. In this paper, the strategic behavior of retailers in implementing forward contracts, distributed energy sources, and demand-response programs with the aim of increasing their profit and reducing their risk, while keeping their retail prices as low as possible, is investigated. For this purpose, risk management problem of the retailer companies collaborating with wholesale electricity markets, is modeled through bi-level programming approach and a comprehensive framework for retail electricity pricing, considering customers’ constraints, is provided in this paper. In the first level of the proposed bi-level optimization problem, the retailer maximizes its expected profit for a given risk level of profit variability, while in the second level, the customers minimize their consumption costs. The proposed programming problem is modeled as Mixed Integer programming (MIP) problem and can be efficiently solved using available commercial solvers. The simulation results on a test case approve the effectiveness of the proposed demand-response program based on dynamic pricing approach on reducing the retailer’s risk and increasing its profit. In this paper, the decision-making problem of the retailers under dynamic pricing approach for demand response integration have been investigated. The retailer was supposed to rely on forward contracts, DGs, and spot electricity market to supply the required active and reactive power of its customers. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, four schemes for retailer’s scheduling problem are considered and the resulted profit under each scheme are analyzed and compared. The simulation results on a test case indicate that providing more options for the retailer to buy the required power of its customers and increase its flexibility in buying energy from spot electricity market reduces the retailers’ risk and increases its profit. From the customers’ perspective also the retailers’accesstodifferentpowersupplysourcesmayleadtoareductionintheretailelectricityprices. Since the retailer would be able to decrease its electricity selling price to the customers without losing its profitability, with the aim of attracting more customers. Inthiswork,theconditionalvalueatrisk(CVaR)measureisusedforconsideringandquantifying riskinthedecision-makingproblems. Amongallthepossibleoptioninfrontoftheretailertooptimize its profit and risk, demand response programs are the most beneficial option for both retailer and its customers. The simulation results on the case study prove that implementing dynamic pricing approach on retail electricity prices to integrate demand response programs can successfully provoke customers to shift their flexible demand from peak-load hours to mid-load and low-load hours. Comparing the simulation results of the third and fourth schemes evidences the impact of DRPs and customers’ load shifting on the reduction of retailer’s risk, as well as the reduction of retailer’s payment to contract holders, DG owners, and spot electricity market. Furthermore, the numerical results imply on the potential of reducing average retail prices up to 8%, under demand response activation. Consequently, it provides a win–win solution for both retailer and its customers. KW - Risikomanagement KW - demand response programs KW - stochastic programming KW - forward contracts KW - risk management KW - retailer KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20180628-37546 UR - http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/6/1602 VL - 2018 IS - 11, 6 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ghazvinei, Pezhman Taherei A1 - Darvishi, Hossein Hassanpour A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Yusof, Khamaruzaman bin Wan A1 - Alizamir, Meysam A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Chau, Kwok-Wing T1 - Sugarcane growth prediction based on meteorological parameters using extreme learning machine and artificial neural network JF - Engineering Applications of Computational Fluid Mechanics N2 - Management strategies for sustainable sugarcane production need to deal with the increasing complexity and variability of the whole sugar system. Moreover, they need to accommodate the multiple goals of different industry sectors and the wider community. Traditional disciplinary approaches are unable to provide integrated management solutions, and an approach based on whole systems analysis is essential to bring about beneficial change to industry and the community. The application of this approach to water management, environmental management and cane supply management is outlined, where the literature indicates that the application of extreme learning machine (ELM) has never been explored in this realm. Consequently, the leading objective of the current research was set to filling this gap by applying ELM to launch swift and accurate model for crop production data-driven. The key learning has been the need for innovation both in the technical aspects of system function underpinned by modelling of sugarcane growth. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to establish an integrate model using ELM to predict the concluding growth amount of sugarcane. Prediction results were evaluated and further compared with artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming models. Accuracy of the ELM model is calculated using the statistics indicators of Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Coefficient (r), and Coefficient of Determination (R2) with promising results of 0.8, 0.47, and 0.89, respectively. The results also show better generalization ability in addition to faster learning curve. Thus, proficiency of the ELM for supplementary work on advancement of prediction model for sugarcane growth was approved with promising results. KW - Künstliche Intelligenz KW - Sustainable production KW - ELM KW - prediction KW - machine learning KW - sugarcane KW - estimation KW - growth mode KW - extreme learning machine KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20181017-38129 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19942060.2018.1526119 VL - 2018 IS - 12,1 SP - 738 EP - 749 PB - Taylor & Francis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Faizollahzadeh Ardabili, Sina A1 - Najafi, Bahman A1 - Alizamir, Meysam A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Rabczuk, Timon T1 - Using SVM-RSM and ELM-RSM Approaches for Optimizing the Production Process of Methyl and Ethyl Esters JF - Energies N2 - The production of a desired product needs an effective use of the experimental model. The present study proposes an extreme learning machine (ELM) and a support vector machine (SVM) integrated with the response surface methodology (RSM) to solve the complexity in optimization and prediction of the ethyl ester and methyl ester production process. The novel hybrid models of ELM-RSM and ELM-SVM are further used as a case study to estimate the yield of methyl and ethyl esters through a trans-esterification process from waste cooking oil (WCO) based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. The results of the prediction phase were also compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which were recently developed by the second author of this study. Based on the results, an ELM with a correlation coefficient of 0.9815 and 0.9863 for methyl and ethyl esters, respectively, had a high estimation capability compared with that for SVM, ANNs, and ANFIS. Accordingly, the maximum production yield was obtained in the case of using ELM-RSM of 96.86% for ethyl ester at a temperature of 68.48 °C, a catalyst value of 1.15 wt. %, mixing intensity of 650.07 rpm, and an alcohol to oil molar ratio (A/O) of 5.77; for methyl ester, the production yield was 98.46% at a temperature of 67.62 °C, a catalyst value of 1.1 wt. %, mixing intensity of 709.42 rpm, and an A/O of 6.09. Therefore, ELM-RSM increased the production yield by 3.6% for ethyl ester and 3.1% for methyl ester, compared with those for the experimental data. KW - Biodiesel KW - Optimierung KW - extreme learning machine KW - machine learning KW - response surface methodology KW - support vector machine KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20181025-38170 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/2889 IS - 11, 2889 SP - 1 EP - 20 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER -