TY - JOUR A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Hosseini Imani, Mahmood A1 - Zalzar, Shaghayegh A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin T1 - Strategic Behavior of Retailers for Risk Reduction and Profit Increment via Distributed Generators and Demand Response Programs JF - Energies N2 - Following restructuring of power industry, electricity supply to end-use customers has undergone fundamental changes. In the restructured power system, some of the responsibilities of the vertically integrated distribution companies have been assigned to network managers and retailers. Under the new situation, retailers are in charge of providing electrical energy to electricity consumers who have already signed contract with them. Retailers usually provide the required energy at a variable price, from wholesale electricity markets, forward contracts with energy producers, or distributed energy generators, and sell it at a fixed retail price to its clients. Different strategies are implemented by retailers to reduce the potential financial losses and risks associated with the uncertain nature of wholesale spot electricity market prices and electrical load of the consumers. In this paper, the strategic behavior of retailers in implementing forward contracts, distributed energy sources, and demand-response programs with the aim of increasing their profit and reducing their risk, while keeping their retail prices as low as possible, is investigated. For this purpose, risk management problem of the retailer companies collaborating with wholesale electricity markets, is modeled through bi-level programming approach and a comprehensive framework for retail electricity pricing, considering customers’ constraints, is provided in this paper. In the first level of the proposed bi-level optimization problem, the retailer maximizes its expected profit for a given risk level of profit variability, while in the second level, the customers minimize their consumption costs. The proposed programming problem is modeled as Mixed Integer programming (MIP) problem and can be efficiently solved using available commercial solvers. The simulation results on a test case approve the effectiveness of the proposed demand-response program based on dynamic pricing approach on reducing the retailer’s risk and increasing its profit. In this paper, the decision-making problem of the retailers under dynamic pricing approach for demand response integration have been investigated. The retailer was supposed to rely on forward contracts, DGs, and spot electricity market to supply the required active and reactive power of its customers. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, four schemes for retailer’s scheduling problem are considered and the resulted profit under each scheme are analyzed and compared. The simulation results on a test case indicate that providing more options for the retailer to buy the required power of its customers and increase its flexibility in buying energy from spot electricity market reduces the retailers’ risk and increases its profit. From the customers’ perspective also the retailers’accesstodifferentpowersupplysourcesmayleadtoareductionintheretailelectricityprices. Since the retailer would be able to decrease its electricity selling price to the customers without losing its profitability, with the aim of attracting more customers. Inthiswork,theconditionalvalueatrisk(CVaR)measureisusedforconsideringandquantifying riskinthedecision-makingproblems. Amongallthepossibleoptioninfrontoftheretailertooptimize its profit and risk, demand response programs are the most beneficial option for both retailer and its customers. The simulation results on the case study prove that implementing dynamic pricing approach on retail electricity prices to integrate demand response programs can successfully provoke customers to shift their flexible demand from peak-load hours to mid-load and low-load hours. Comparing the simulation results of the third and fourth schemes evidences the impact of DRPs and customers’ load shifting on the reduction of retailer’s risk, as well as the reduction of retailer’s payment to contract holders, DG owners, and spot electricity market. Furthermore, the numerical results imply on the potential of reducing average retail prices up to 8%, under demand response activation. Consequently, it provides a win–win solution for both retailer and its customers. KW - Risikomanagement KW - demand response programs KW - stochastic programming KW - forward contracts KW - risk management KW - retailer KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20180628-37546 UR - http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/6/1602 VL - 2018 IS - 11, 6 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ghazvinei, Pezhman Taherei A1 - Darvishi, Hossein Hassanpour A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Yusof, Khamaruzaman bin Wan A1 - Alizamir, Meysam A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Chau, Kwok-Wing T1 - Sugarcane growth prediction based on meteorological parameters using extreme learning machine and artificial neural network JF - Engineering Applications of Computational Fluid Mechanics N2 - Management strategies for sustainable sugarcane production need to deal with the increasing complexity and variability of the whole sugar system. Moreover, they need to accommodate the multiple goals of different industry sectors and the wider community. Traditional disciplinary approaches are unable to provide integrated management solutions, and an approach based on whole systems analysis is essential to bring about beneficial change to industry and the community. The application of this approach to water management, environmental management and cane supply management is outlined, where the literature indicates that the application of extreme learning machine (ELM) has never been explored in this realm. Consequently, the leading objective of the current research was set to filling this gap by applying ELM to launch swift and accurate model for crop production data-driven. The key learning has been the need for innovation both in the technical aspects of system function underpinned by modelling of sugarcane growth. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to establish an integrate model using ELM to predict the concluding growth amount of sugarcane. Prediction results were evaluated and further compared with artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming models. Accuracy of the ELM model is calculated using the statistics indicators of Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Coefficient (r), and Coefficient of Determination (R2) with promising results of 0.8, 0.47, and 0.89, respectively. The results also show better generalization ability in addition to faster learning curve. Thus, proficiency of the ELM for supplementary work on advancement of prediction model for sugarcane growth was approved with promising results. KW - Künstliche Intelligenz KW - Sustainable production KW - ELM KW - prediction KW - machine learning KW - sugarcane KW - estimation KW - growth mode KW - extreme learning machine KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20181017-38129 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19942060.2018.1526119 VL - 2018 IS - 12,1 SP - 738 EP - 749 PB - Taylor & Francis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Faizollahzadeh Ardabili, Sina A1 - Najafi, Bahman A1 - Alizamir, Meysam A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Rabczuk, Timon T1 - Using SVM-RSM and ELM-RSM Approaches for Optimizing the Production Process of Methyl and Ethyl Esters JF - Energies N2 - The production of a desired product needs an effective use of the experimental model. The present study proposes an extreme learning machine (ELM) and a support vector machine (SVM) integrated with the response surface methodology (RSM) to solve the complexity in optimization and prediction of the ethyl ester and methyl ester production process. The novel hybrid models of ELM-RSM and ELM-SVM are further used as a case study to estimate the yield of methyl and ethyl esters through a trans-esterification process from waste cooking oil (WCO) based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. The results of the prediction phase were also compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which were recently developed by the second author of this study. Based on the results, an ELM with a correlation coefficient of 0.9815 and 0.9863 for methyl and ethyl esters, respectively, had a high estimation capability compared with that for SVM, ANNs, and ANFIS. Accordingly, the maximum production yield was obtained in the case of using ELM-RSM of 96.86% for ethyl ester at a temperature of 68.48 °C, a catalyst value of 1.15 wt. %, mixing intensity of 650.07 rpm, and an alcohol to oil molar ratio (A/O) of 5.77; for methyl ester, the production yield was 98.46% at a temperature of 67.62 °C, a catalyst value of 1.1 wt. %, mixing intensity of 709.42 rpm, and an A/O of 6.09. Therefore, ELM-RSM increased the production yield by 3.6% for ethyl ester and 3.1% for methyl ester, compared with those for the experimental data. KW - Biodiesel KW - Optimierung KW - extreme learning machine KW - machine learning KW - response surface methodology KW - support vector machine KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20181025-38170 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/2889 IS - 11, 2889 SP - 1 EP - 20 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Najafi, Bahman A1 - Faizollahzadeh Ardabili, Sina A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Rabczuk, Timon T1 - An Intelligent Artificial Neural Network-Response Surface Methodology Method for Accessing the Optimum Biodiesel and Diesel Fuel Blending Conditions in a Diesel Engine from the Viewpoint of Exergy and Energy Analysis JF - Energies N2 - Biodiesel, as the main alternative fuel to diesel fuel which is produced from renewable and available resources, improves the engine emissions during combustion in diesel engines. In this study, the biodiesel is produced initially from waste cooking oil (WCO). The fuel samples are applied in a diesel engine and the engine performance has been considered from the viewpoint of exergy and energy approaches. Engine tests are performed at a constant 1500 rpm speed with various loads and fuel samples. The obtained experimental data are also applied to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Response surface methodology (RSM) is employed to optimize the exergy and energy efficiencies. Based on the results of the energy analysis, optimal engine performance is obtained at 80% of full load in presence of B10 and B20 fuels. However, based on the exergy analysis results, optimal engine performance is obtained at 80% of full load in presence of B90 and B100 fuels. The optimum values of exergy and energy efficiencies are in the range of 25–30% of full load, which is the same as the calculated range obtained from mathematical modeling. KW - Biodiesel KW - ANN modeling KW - biodiesel KW - Artificial Intelligence KW - diesel engines KW - energy, exergy KW - mathematical modeling KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2018 Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20180507-37467 UR - http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/860 VL - 2018 IS - 11, 4 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - INPR A1 - Rezakazemi, Mashallah A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Shirazian, Saeed T1 - ANFIS pattern for molecular membranes separation optimization N2 - In this work, molecular separation of aqueous-organic was simulated by using combined soft computing-mechanistic approaches. The considered separation system was a microporous membrane contactor for separation of benzoic acid from water by contacting with an organic phase containing extractor molecules. Indeed, extractive separation is carried out using membrane technology where complex of solute-organic is formed at the interface. The main focus was to develop a simulation methodology for prediction of concentration distribution of solute (benzoic acid) in the feed side of the membrane system, as the removal efficiency of the system is determined by concentration distribution of the solute in the feed channel. The pattern of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was optimized by finding the optimum membership function, learning percentage, and a number of rules. The ANFIS was trained using the extracted data from the CFD simulation of the membrane system. The comparisons between the predicted concentration distribution by ANFIS and CFD data revealed that the optimized ANFIS pattern can be used as a predictive tool for simulation of the process. The R2 of higher than 0.99 was obtained for the optimized ANFIS model. The main privilege of the developed methodology is its very low computational time for simulation of the system and can be used as a rigorous simulation tool for understanding and design of membrane-based systems. Highlights are, Molecular separation using microporous membranes. Developing hybrid model based on ANFIS-CFD for the separation process, Optimization of ANFIS structure for prediction of separation process KW - Fluid KW - Simulation KW - Molecular Liquids KW - optimization KW - machine learning KW - Membrane contactors KW - CFD Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20181122-38212 N1 - This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167732218345008, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.molliq.2018.11.017. VL - 2018 SP - 1 EP - 20 ER - TY - INPR A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Torabi, Mehrnoosh A1 - Hashemi, Sattar A1 - Saybani, Mahmoud Reza A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin T1 - A Hybrid Clustering and Classification Technique for Forecasting Short-Term Energy Consumption N2 - Electrical energy distributor companies in Iran have to announce their energy demand at least three 3-day ahead of the market opening. Therefore, an accurate load estimation is highly crucial. This research invoked methodology based on CRISP data mining and used SVM, ANN, and CBA-ANN-SVM (a novel hybrid model of clustering with both widely used ANN and SVM) to predict short-term electrical energy demand of Bandarabbas. In previous studies, researchers introduced few effective parameters with no reasonable error about Bandarabbas power consumption. In this research we tried to recognize all efficient parameters and with the use of CBA-ANN-SVM model, the rate of error has been minimized. After consulting with experts in the field of power consumption and plotting daily power consumption for each week, this research showed that official holidays and weekends have impact on the power consumption. When the weather gets warmer, the consumption of electrical energy increases due to turning on electrical air conditioner. Also, con-sumption patterns in warm and cold months are different. Analyzing power consumption of the same month for different years had shown high similarity in power consumption patterns. Factors with high impact on power consumption were identified and statistical methods were utilized to prove their impacts. Using SVM, ANN and CBA-ANN-SVM, the model was built. Sine the proposed method (CBA-ANN-SVM) has low MAPE 5 1.474 (4 clusters) and MAPE 5 1.297 (3 clusters) in comparison with SVM (MAPE 5 2.015) and ANN (MAPE 5 1.790), this model was selected as the final model. The final model has the benefits from both models and the benefits of clustering. Clustering algorithm with discovering data structure, divides data into several clusters based on similarities and differences between them. Because data inside each cluster are more similar than entire data, modeling in each cluster will present better results. For future research, we suggest using fuzzy methods and genetic algorithm or a hybrid of both to forecast each cluster. It is also possible to use fuzzy methods or genetic algorithms or a hybrid of both without using clustering. It is issued that such models will produce better and more accurate results. This paper presents a hybrid approach to predict the electric energy usage of weather-sensitive loads. The presented methodutilizes the clustering paradigm along with ANN and SVMapproaches for accurate short-term prediction of electric energyusage, using weather data. Since the methodology beinginvoked in this research is based on CRISP data mining, datapreparation has received a gr eat deal of attention in thisresear ch. Once data pre-processing was done, the underlyingpattern of electric energy consumption was extracted by themeans of machine learning methods to precisely forecast short-term energy consumption. The proposed approach (CBA-ANN-SVM) was applied to real load data and resulting higher accu-racy comparing to the existing models. 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12934 KW - Data Mining KW - support vector machine (SVM) KW - Machine Learning KW - forecasting KW - Prediction KW - Electric Energy Consumption KW - clustering KW - artificial neural networks (ANN) Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20180907-37550 N1 - This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ep.12934, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12934. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. ER - TY - INPR A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Moeini, Iman A1 - Ahmadpour, Mohammad A1 - Alharbi, Naif A1 - E. Gorji, Nima T1 - Modeling the time-dependent characteristics of perovskite solar cells N2 - We proposed two different time-dependent modeling approaches for variation of device characteristics of perovskite solar cells under stress conditions. The first approach follows Sah-Noyce-Shockley (SNS) model based on Shockley–Read–Hall recombination/generation across the depletion width of pn junction and the second approach is based on thermionic emission model for Schottky diodes. The connecting point of these approaches to time variation is the time-dependent defect generation in depletion width (W) of the junction. We have fitted the two models with experimental data reported in the literature to perovskite solar cell and found out that each model has a superior explanation for degradation of device metrics e.g. current density and efficiency by time under stress conditions. Nevertheless, the Sah-Noyce-Shockley model is more reliable than thermionic emission at least for solar cells. KW - Solarzelle KW - Solar KW - Solar cells KW - Modeling KW - Time-dependent KW - Defect generation KW - Perovskite Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20180907-37573 N1 - Published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.05.082. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ouaer, Hocine A1 - Hosseini, Amir Hossein A1 - Amar, Menad Nait A1 - Ben Seghier, Mohamed El Amine A1 - Ghriga, Mohammed Abdelfetah A1 - Nabipour, Narjes A1 - Andersen, Pål Østebø A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin T1 - Rigorous Connectionist Models to Predict Carbon Dioxide Solubility in Various Ionic Liquids JF - Applied Sciences N2 - Estimating the solubility of carbon dioxide in ionic liquids, using reliable models, is of paramount importance from both environmental and economic points of view. In this regard, the current research aims at evaluating the performance of two data-driven techniques, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP) and gene expression programming (GEP), for predicting the solubility of carbon dioxide (CO2) in ionic liquids (ILs) as the function of pressure, temperature, and four thermodynamical parameters of the ionic liquid. To develop the above techniques, 744 experimental data points derived from the literature including 13 ILs were used (80% of the points for training and 20% for validation). Two backpropagation-based methods, namely Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularization (BR), were applied to optimize the MLP algorithm. Various statistical and graphical assessments were applied to check the credibility of the developed techniques. The results were then compared with those calculated using Peng–Robinson (PR) or Soave–Redlich–Kwong (SRK) equations of state (EoS). The highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.9965) and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE = 0.0116) were recorded for the MLP-LMA model on the full dataset (with a negligible difference to the MLP-BR model). The comparison of results from this model with the vastly applied thermodynamic equation of state models revealed slightly better performance, but the EoS approaches also performed well with R2 from 0.984 up to 0.996. Lastly, the newly established correlation based on the GEP model exhibited very satisfactory results with overall values of R2 = 0.9896 and RMSE = 0.0201. KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Machine learning KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2020 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20200107-40558 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/1/304 VL - 2020 IS - Volume 10, Issue 1, 304 PB - MDPI ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin A1 - Joloudari, Javad Hassannataj A1 - GhasemiGol, Mohammad A1 - Saadatfar, Hamid A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Nabipour, Narjes T1 - FCS-MBFLEACH: Designing an Energy-Aware Fault Detection System for Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks JF - Mathematics N2 - Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) include large-scale sensor nodes that are densely distributed over a geographical region that is completely randomized for monitoring, identifying, and analyzing physical events. The crucial challenge in wireless sensor networks is the very high dependence of the sensor nodes on limited battery power to exchange information wirelessly as well as the non-rechargeable battery of the wireless sensor nodes, which makes the management and monitoring of these nodes in terms of abnormal changes very difficult. These anomalies appear under faults, including hardware, software, anomalies, and attacks by raiders, all of which affect the comprehensiveness of the data collected by wireless sensor networks. Hence, a crucial contraption should be taken to detect the early faults in the network, despite the limitations of the sensor nodes. Machine learning methods include solutions that can be used to detect the sensor node faults in the network. The purpose of this study is to use several classification methods to compute the fault detection accuracy with different densities under two scenarios in regions of interest such as MB-FLEACH, one-class support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy one-class, or a combination of SVM and FCS-MBFLEACH methods. It should be noted that in the study so far, no super cluster head (SCH) selection has been performed to detect node faults in the network. The simulation outcomes demonstrate that the FCS-MBFLEACH method has the best performance in terms of the accuracy of fault detection, false-positive rate (FPR), average remaining energy, and network lifetime compared to other classification methods. KW - Vernetzung KW - wireless sensor networks KW - machine learning KW - Funktechnik KW - Sensor KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Internet of Things KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2019 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20200107-40541 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/1/28 VL - 2020 IS - Volume 8, Issue 1, article 28 PB - MDPI ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Saadatfar, Hamid A1 - Khosravi, Samiyeh A1 - Hassannataj Joloudari, Javad A1 - Mosavi, Amir A1 - Shamshirband, Shahaboddin T1 - A New K-Nearest Neighbors Classifier for Big Data Based on Efficient Data Pruning JF - Mathematics N2 - The K-nearest neighbors (KNN) machine learning algorithm is a well-known non-parametric classification method. However, like other traditional data mining methods, applying it on big data comes with computational challenges. Indeed, KNN determines the class of a new sample based on the class of its nearest neighbors; however, identifying the neighbors in a large amount of data imposes a large computational cost so that it is no longer applicable by a single computing machine. One of the proposed techniques to make classification methods applicable on large datasets is pruning. LC-KNN is an improved KNN method which first clusters the data into some smaller partitions using the K-means clustering method; and then applies the KNN for each new sample on the partition which its center is the nearest one. However, because the clusters have different shapes and densities, selection of the appropriate cluster is a challenge. In this paper, an approach has been proposed to improve the pruning phase of the LC-KNN method by taking into account these factors. The proposed approach helps to choose a more appropriate cluster of data for looking for the neighbors, thus, increasing the classification accuracy. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated on different real datasets. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its higher classification accuracy and lower time cost in comparison to other recent relevant methods. KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Machine learning KW - K-nearest neighbors KW - KNN KW - classifier KW - big data KW - clustering KW - cluster shape KW - cluster density KW - classification KW - reinforcement learning KW - data science KW - computation KW - artificial intelligence KW - OA-Publikationsfonds2020 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:wim2-20200225-40996 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/2/286 VL - 2020 IS - volume 8, issue 2, article 286 PB - MDPI ER -